“Last time there was this much excitement about a tablet, it had some commandments written on it.” — Martin Peers, December 30 Wall Street Journal
I considered that it might be of some service (or at least, somewhat entertaining) to aggregate a few projections for 2010 from industry experts on business, brands, marketing and media. While I certainly would not proclaim myself a futurist, I’ll lean on the expertise, experience and insights of my peers in this post, as I pitch in a few of my own.
Listed below, in no particular order, are a few of our best guesses at what we can expect in the coming 362 days.
* This Blogger assumes no responsibility for ill-fated investments made on behalf of these published prognostications.
1. Media business models will continue to shift to depending on more revenue from audiences, not advertisers, and providing them with content they want when they want it.
2. Newspapers will ask online readers to pay for some content (as the Journal and FT do) but will find few paying customers.
3. Overall advertising spending will not grow but decline slightly in 2010, with growth expected in 2011.
4. Traditional media advertising will decline as digital, mobile, non-traditional, and direct channels grow and more advertising inventory flows through digital media.
5. Demand for eReader content will grow significantly.
6. Apple’s tablet (iTablet) will transcend all other eReader technology – after the sticker shock subsides – perhaps changing magazine and newspaper “publishing” forever.
7. Social media will thrive but not grow at ’09 rates as marketers get smarter and more sophisticated about deploying social media and developing social networking strategies.
8. More and more apps – they’re coming as media organizations develop more niche content.
9. Print is not dead; the print-only business model is dead. Thus, traditional media jobs lost over the Great Recession will not – ever – come back.
10. Eventually, we will all work for Google.
IridiumGroup Mobile Strategies Division
Many of the largest consumer brands in the U.S. still have no mobile presence. One of the biggest areas for growth in the mobile industry as a category is Mobile Commerce. The opportunity is virtually untapped in terms of potential and there are not many companies in a position to capitalize on it. Mobile purchasing and e-commerce will begin to be seen in many new market segments but will continue to be driven through direct marketing channels such as print, outdoor advertising and television.
We should start to actually see some growth in the U.S. with this technology. It has its benefits — they are cheap, easy to create, easy to use and can be very effective at driving content, transactions and real time data.
Companies will continue to use SMS to connect with their audience but will expect their SMS platforms to do more. Provide accurate and well-constructed metrics. Opportunities still abound with SMS messaging and the market is still in its relative infancy, but it has a level of maturity that requires more than “a cool image” in order to be successful. Companies are looking to monetize mobile, and reporting and metrics will be a requirement of any mobile solutions. The same thing has taken place with email marketing platforms. A certain level of sophistication and measurements are required for any solution.
There will be a big push for location-based services using GPS technology to provide virtual signposts, local reviews, and niche showcasing of technology. Part of the compelling ‘Brand” story is the use by the brand itself of what is perceived to be hot new mobile technologies.
In 2010 the mobile web will be available to almost half of the traditional computer based web consumers. Thanks to the growth rates of broadband networks, Wifi availability and huge growth in web, we will see mobile phones and smartphones increasingly web-enabled.
Data and CRM
There will be enterprise wide directives to link the traditional data driven marketing effort to the uniquely personal relationships that consumers have with their mobile phones. The winners will have truly integrated end-to-end solutions that encompass data not only from mobile interactions but also from social networks.
Prediction #1: The Bullish Dow.
The Dow Jones will reach 11,000 quickly — perhaps before the end of January, before it retreats and levels off into a confusing swirl of fits and starts. In the 2nd quarter, we’ll be graced with yet another bullish run as the market hits 12,000 by June. As it reaches a tipping point with institutional investors finally finding the confidence they need, the Dow will hit 13,000 by October. Propelled in part by successful earning reports (a lag effect of layoffs — focus on financial performance and consequential profits), and a U.S. retail market that is driven by a weak dollar and foreign trade, Wall Street will celebrate a a topped out DJI average of 13,500 by January 1, 2011.
Prediction #2: Google Takes On Apple.
Google’s new Nexus One phone will finish beta-testing, launch in the fall and compete aggressively and successfully, in taking partial market share from the ubiquitous Apple iPhone.
Prediction #3: Smaller and Smarter.
Smartbooks — smaller versions of the laptop that perform more like smart phones — will debut in early 2010 at the CES show and proceed to entrench modestly among consumers who will find the retail costs attractive. All of this will be subsidized and promoted in part by various telecom carriers.
Prediction #4: Virtual Computing Gains Ground.
In organizational IT, why do we all need separate hard drives? Something called desktop virtualization will take root and grow in popularity quickly, first among corporate CIOs at an organizational level, and later among consumers. Less expensive, and empowering in its ability to better manage the hardware and information, employees will work with only a keyboard and a monitor, with a massive, central processor unit located thousands of miles away. On-site technical support will never be the same.
Prediction #5. Techno-Social Head-Spinning.
A new, seemingly pandemic disorder will emerge among consumers who become disoriented at the myriad of product options and new communications channels being developed. As this boundless array of integrated devices, PDAs, netbooks, Kindles, smartbooks, smartphones, websites and pod-like devices invade our increasingly isolated 21st Century lives, we’ll see a sort of communications overload. Consumers — time-impoverished and numb from the IT revolution — will begin to disengage. In a dramatic backlash to its rapid growth in 2008 and 2009, active use by members on Facebook will diminish by 35% or more.
This entry was posted on Monday, January 4th, 2010 at 10:17 am and is filed under Brand Identity, Marketing, Media. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.